Real profitability, weaker US dollar and attractiveness of safe haven boost XAU / USD

GOLDEN PERSPECTIVE

• The US exchange rate, the dollar and geopolitics are maintained gold.
• $ 1850 in focus!
• IG customer sentiment: ambiguous.

XAU / USD FUNDAMENTAL BACKGROUND

Gold is currently in a large space with almost all support markers that prefer yellow metal. US 10-year TIPS (see image below) became a plateau, which gave additional impetus to the growth of gold due to lower costs of gold content – traditionally the inverse relationship.

USA 10-YEAR TIPS BET OF NON-ATTENDANCE

Source: Refinitiv

In terms of the dollar, we have seen a drop in USD rabies recently due to a combination of factors including more hawks ECBoverstrained dollars and the weakening of the Chinese economy (COVID-19).

Finally, the conversation around the impending Russian oil According to German Finance Minister Lindner, who is waiting for a concrete decision by the end of the week, the embargo may come earlier than expected. While President Joe Biden’s appeal for intervention in the event of China’s invasion of Taiwan added to the ingots shelter attractiveness.

There are several releases on the economic calendar today that affect the dollar, including PMI and home sales – look out for changes in interest rate markets! Later this evening, we look forward to it Fed Speech by Chairman Jerome Powell for recommendations on the US economy and Fed forecasts.

ECONOMIC CALENDAR

Source: DailyFX Economic Calendar

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

CHILD CHART OF GOLD PRICES

The diagram is prepared Warren VenketasIG

Technically gold price action confirmed his place above 1850,00 psychological level after yesterday’s daily candle closed above this resistance zone. I would be hesitant to prefer a long preference, leaving today’s candle closed, which is much more important. This closely coincides with 200-day SMA (gray), and a strong push above can set the indicator as support forward.

Resistance levels:

• 1900.00
• 50-day EMA (blue) / 100-day EMA (yellow)

Support levels:

• 1850.00 / 200-day SMA
• 1832.51 (23.6%) Fibonacci)
• 1800.00

IG CUSTOMER MOOD: Caution

IGCS shows retailers now clearly LONG on goldwith 86% traders who currently hold long positions (at the time of writing). At DailyFX we usually have conflicting views on the mood of the crowd, however due to recent changes in long and short positioning we come to an ambiguous position.

Get in touch and follow Warren on Twitter: @WVenketas