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The “second miracle” or the historic victory of the opposition? Nobody knows how this election path will end Peter Lewis

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On the last manic road to the ballot box, we approach the republican crossroads with justified trepidation: are we going to the light, or is another runaway train coming to plow us?

All of us, questionnaires and experts (and we progressives in general) are feeling our own form of PTSD after the car crash that was in the 2019 election, where we misread the warning signs and fell off the electoral cliff.

The main report of the Guardian considers Labor with an advantage that, if replicated at the national level and passes through the last 7% of undecided voters, will lead to a change of government.

Preferred plus for two parties *

But in these figures there are remarks that are reflected in the regional differences outlined above. Truth be told, these national elections are at least three separate but ultimately close competitions.

One election campaign is being conducted in the middle suburbs of our major cities, where the cost of living and housing are biting. These are the seats Coalition kept in 2019 on promises not to abolish tax breaks, but with this policy discontinued, Labor is in favor of safe change.

The second election campaign is taking place on the outskirts of our major cities, where less informed voters are in Labor positions, which, according to Scott Morrison, can be defeated through hard-line cultural wars.

Finally, there is a struggle for high incomes in the city center, where few liberal parties remain. tolerant retribution awaits for the fact that the party continues to neglect climate change, government integrity and gender equality.

Due to the fragmentary nature of the competition, national trends are not decisive, and ultimately election night will be a matter of vote distribution as far as size is concerned.

There are other markers that show how this journey ends. Through the campaign, we identified the relative popularity of leaders where Now Morrison is in the redwhile Anthony Albanese sits in pure positivebasically changing the position of Morrison and Bill Shorten three years ago.

Another key indicator is the choice of voters: what question do voters ask themselves when going to the ballot box? In trying to offer a fair reading of the main tenets of each side, for Morrison’s government it was about a solid pair of hands to run the economy, while for Albanes Labor it was about the government’s need to confront the nation’s problems. facing.

What is closest to you in this election?

The construction of these two options shows that it is the framework of work that defines competition. Indeed, in recent days Morrison has admitted that he lost the battle of the electorate and so it is trying to remake himself as a positive factor of change. The problem he faces is that if change is a voter proposal, it is difficult to see that the status quo prevails.

So what’s happening now? The windshield is too dirty to predict the outcome on Saturday with anything like confidence. The only confidence is that if we look in the rearview mirror on Sunday morning at what just happened, everything will be crystal clear.

If Labor gets the majority of votes, it will be because: The Albanian spoke a disciplined three-year strategy that yielded the shock of 2019, avoiding performative policies and relentlessly focusing on the government’s victory. Labor earned power by playing a constructive role in the first year of the pandemic, when many state oppositions tried to score cheap points but then relentlessly drew the government to a report until 2021, when the government vaccinated, ignored quarantine and politicized border closures.

The reality will be that Morrison lost this election in 2019 because of his stay in Hawaii, a handshake and a hose. This evasion of responsibility formalized every subsequent act of neglect: women, climate, nursing care, all NDIS home returns to participate in the campaign until his personal reputation became fatal to him. His last days will be remembered by the chaotic and disjointed company where he seemed to have deliberately donated progressive places to teals.

If Morrison manages to hold on: it will be his “second miracle”, another triumph tactics and evidence of his mastery of the game, which became electoral politics. A sufficient number of voters would agree that “you can’t blame ScoMo for the pandemic” and that Australia has worked well enough compared to other countries. The Davis gambit, aimed at narrowing fanaticism to specific goals, has done its job. Morrison will appear with immense personal authority in government, even less concerned about accountability, seeing how little performance really matters.

Labor will remain in the hands of its leader The day of the first campaign the brains disappear it became a landmark political moment, giving the wild press a taste of blood in water that was never saturated. It would also be unfortunate that Albanese presented too small a goal and that he left it too late to reveal himself to the electorate, which allowed the government to determine it based on his mistakes. After 2019 was “too hot”, it will be determined that Labor has over-corrected its conscious decision to exclude passion from the wider progressive movement.

When we are done with the minority government defined by the independents: this will mean that Australia is ready to fundamentally rewrite its political flaws. The result will reflect the reality that more and more Australians have moved from major parties to new alliances of post-material citizens and nativist outsiders.

After a tumultuous campaign against the independents, Morrison will be unable to gather a stable minority pressed by the citizens on the right and tea on the left, pushing and dragging into zones that the other side simply will not go. The Labor minority, which is negotiating with the Tea, Greens and other independents, will have a better chance of success, although the lessons of 2010-2013 could hamper a formal power-sharing agreement. With an enraged and divided opposition fueled by Murdoch’s shrill press, it will be a wild journey, but with the potential to create a more joint policy model in Australia in the future.

What road? Right now all these futures are possible when we enter the final straight. If I had to call, I think the current has turned to Morrison and the government will change. If history is our guide, this change will be crucial. The small victory of the opposition will be truly historic, but we will still take it.

But just like I warned on the eve of the 2019 electionwhile champagne needs to be put on ice, we would all be well advised to keep scotch tape on hand on Saturday night.

Yes, it’s 101%, but that’s because all three figures are rounded up.

Peter Lewis will discuss the findings of the Essential Report with Guardian Australia political editor Catherine Murphy and Australian Institute Deputy Director Ebony Bennett during the special election on Wednesday at 6 p.m. Bring a drink! Register here

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/commentisfree/2022/may/18/second-miracle-or-historic-win-from-opposition-no-one-knows-how-this-election-journey-will-end

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